Tomorrows Baseball

The St. Louis Cardinals sign Lance Lynn to a one-year contract worth $10M, with an option for 2025. Lynn finished last season with the Los Angeles Dodgers after they acquired the veteran via trade from the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline.

Lance Lynn agrees to Cardinals deal, 1 year plus option. Guarantees $10M in 2024, plus $1M buyout on option. Can be worth about $26M over 2 with escalators. Pluses: Started with Cards, lives nearby in southern Illinois. Pending physical tomorrow.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 20, 2023

After posting the worst season of his career, Lynn likely didn’t have many suitors. At 36-years-old the best of his career is in the past.

Signing Lynn was an unexpected move from the Cardinals front office because most fans expected them to sign a big-time starter such as Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

This is likely the beginning of the offseason moves for the Cardinals. While Nola is no longer available, Gray and Yamamoto are, and I expect the Cardinals to sign one of these two. It is also highly probable that they acquire a pitcher via trade this offseason.

St. Louis Cardinals Sign Lance Lynn

Lance Lynn in 2023

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As mentioned above, Lynn is coming off the worst season of his career. He posted a 13-11 record across 183.2 innings with the Dodgers and White Sox. Baseball Savant lists Lynn’s Pitching Run Value in the first percentile, meaning he was the worst pitcher in baseball last season.

Lynn had the second-worst ERA (5.73), among qualified pitchers and second-worst FIP (5.53). Lynn also finished with the most home runs allowed per nine innings (2.16).

Lynn did perform better after being dealt to the Dodgers. In these 11 games, he put up a 7-2 record and a 4.36 ERA. However, his FIP rose to 6.16, and his strikeouts per nine innings fell to 6.61 in this stretch.

Lance Lynn’s Impact with the St. Louis Cardinals

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The addition of Lynn on the field will be minimal. At this point in his career, he is, at best, the number four pitcher in the Cardinal’s rotation. If they want to make a World Series push, Lynn needs to be the fifth starter, and the Cardinals need to sign or trade for a proper number one and two starter.

It’s hard to measure a player’s value off the field, but Lynn is a clubhouse guy that can bring a team together. After losing Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, and former bench coach Skip Schumaker in recent years, signing Lynn to be a veteran presence can go a long way.

Lance Lynn’s Departure Impact on the Dodgers

The Dodgers will be just fine with losing out on Lynn. They have the money to replace him in free agency or rely on their young up-and-coming pitchers to take over.

Final Thoughts on Lance Lynn

It’s too early to give a definitive opinion on this signing yet. As it stands, I’m not a big fan of the signing, but it can wind up going two ways.

1. The Cardinals sign or trade for two top-of-the-rotation pieces. If this happens, then I love the signing of Lynn to be your fifth starter.
2. The Cardinals DO NOT sign two top-of-the-rotation-pieces. If this happens, then I hate the signing of Lynn because he’ll be your third starter and the Cardinals will miss the playoffs.

Cardinals’ fans can only hope this is just the beginning of their offseason moves. I do believe there is more to come for the team either via trade or signing.

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